Food prices are set to rise in 2025—unsurprising to many. Now, Canada’s food experts have detailed exactly how much more shoppers can expect to spend on groceries.
“The 15th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report was released Dec. 5. The report is a collaborative effort by Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of Saskatchewan, and University of British Columbia.
Nationally, the overall food price increase is projected between three and five per cent in 2025.
For a typical family of four, estimated food spending is expected to increase by $801.56 over 2024, to a food spending of $16,833.67.
Meat is projected to be the highest driver of increased food costs with an expected increase of four to six per cent.
Anticipated increases by category are as follows:
- Bakery 2 - 4 per cent
- Dairy 2 - 4 per cent
- Fruits 1 - 3 per cent
- Meat 4 - 6 per cent
- Restaurants 3 - 5 per cent
- Seafood 1 - 3 per cent
- Vegetables 3 - 5 per cent
- Other 2 - 4 per cent
“This report represents a collective effort to equip Canadians with the knowledge needed to navigate their food choices and expenditures,” said Sylvain Charlebois, project lead from Dalhousie University, in a news release. “By combining expertise across institutions and leveraging innovative methodologies, we aim to foster a deeper understanding of the factors shaping our food system.”
The food report only looks at price projections in the provinces as there is not enough data to include the territories.
The anticipated food price increases are not spread evenly across the provinces. Ontario, as well as Alberta and British Columbia, are expected to have below-average price changes in 2025, but no exact figure was provided. In 2024, Ontario’s food prices increased by 3.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index.
Drivers of food inflation
Food prices are driven by many global factors and the report suggests a few key factors in 2025 include climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and the trade environment, food and retail distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness and trends, and consumer debt and disposable income.
A weak Canadian dollar, compared to the U.S. greenback, will reduce the buying power of Canadian importers.
Additionally, the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president could result in Americans importing less Canadian agri-food products. Currently, 60 per cent of Canada’s agri-food exports are headed to the U.S.
“The election of Donald Trump signals a trend toward an increasingly clustered agri-food trading world,” Charlebois said in the report. “To safeguard our food security, Canada will need to work closely with North American partners.”
Unpredictable weather is also challenging food producers, which impacts food volumes and the occurrence of crop disease. For example, high temperatures, floods and drought in West Africa and Brazil impacted the price of cocoa and orange juice, while wildfires in Western Canada blocked rail lines.
“Some impacts of adverse weather are starting to be reflected in food prices, such as more expensive meat, due to lengthy droughts in Canada’s beef-producing regions,” said Stuart Smyth, campus lead at the University of Saskatchewan, in the report. “This has resulted in fewer cattle presently producing meat.”
The report further adds shutdowns and strikes at major railways and ports that have stalled millions of dollars’ worth in daily trade, slowing domestic shipments and straining exports. Additionally, Canada’s manufacturing and agricultural industries have been unable to secure a stable workforce following COVID-19, which is further reducing volumes.
The full report is available online.”
Source: https://www.toronto.com/news/your-grocery-bill-is-going-up-in-2025-here-s-how-much-canadian-food-prices/article_1ffdd2d2-2b56-5c97-ab78-6b916fa89146.html